MPs Doubt Gatwick Growth Boost

The Government's decision to approve a huge expansion of Gatwick Airport has been followed by a legal challenge and strong criticism from a cross-party group of MPs.

The Commons Environmental Audit Select Committee stated: "Whilst the Government support for airport expansion has been largely based on its expectation of economic growth, the Government has been unable to direct the Committee to any evidence that supports its assertion."

The committee pointed out that British tourists travelling internationally spend more money abroad than is received through tourists coming to the UK, accounting for a deficit of around £40 billion per year.

The committee concluded: "It is possible that an increase in airport capacity would increase this tourism deficit and lead to further financial impacts on the UK domestic tourism industry".

The committee also cited evidence of potential growth due to aviation from Heathrow expansion, commissioned by Heathrow published by Frontier Economics in January 2025 which found that a third runway would provide an additional 0.43% to UK GDP by 2050. But this modelling was challenged by Dr David Metz, former Chief Scientist at the Department for Transport, who said the kind of modelling used in this study has gained “little credence” previously.

The committee's report cited witnesses Andrew Meaney, Head of Transport at Oxera and Dr Alex Chapman, Senior Economist at the New Economics Foundation who stated that apparent growth figures due to aviation often involved "double counting" and the two economists suggested jobs created through airport functions, such as retail and hospitality, may just move economic benefit from another part of the economy.

The committee concluded: "The Government is yet to set out how it will ensure climate, environment and biodiversity targets can be delivered whilst consenting to airport expansion; and what level of economic growth the UK can expect from this significant infrastructure development. The Government should do so at the earliest opportunity."

Gatwick estimates the expansion could result in more than 100,000 extra flights per year by the late 2030s, and says passenger numbers could rise from 40 million a year to 80 million.

When making the announcement, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves dismissed climate concerns, telling reporters: "People going on holiday will have a greater choice of destinations. It will mean lower costs for a family holiday."

Rachel Reeves also set aside the potential hit to economic activity in the UK arising from greater spending by UK tourists overseas, continuing: "It will also mean more good jobs paying decent wages through this injection of cash into our economy. We said as a government we would back the builders and not the blockers - and that is exactly what we are doing with this announcement."

The Conservative MP for Tonbridge, Tom Tugendhat, called the announcement "hugely disappointing."

The former Green Party parliamentary candidate for Tonbridge, Anna Cope, spelled out her party's outright opposition to the expansion of Gatwick. She said the UK economy would benefit much more from investment in public transport like affordable rail travel to make UK holidays more popular.